The impeachment, Zurich and Rothschild
Mr Stratocaster, PostDoc.
It says the seventh axiom of Zurich: only trust a guess, if you are able to identify something that can explain it.
The search for the word "impeachment" in search engines has rapidly grown in recent months:
Another evidence of increased interest is that the major bookmakers reported similar movement:
Besides impeachment, it is important to remember that there is also the recall. Both have their legal routines, but there is a conceptual difference: Impeachment requires a concrete act of legal irresponsibility, while the recall is based on the popular will to revoke the mandate.
Although there is a clearly visible social sense, it must be confronted with legal procedures. How long can this feeling turn into concrete facts? And which are the odds of this happening? It is not an easy task.
In recall case, there is one aspect that may be going unnoticed: in the recall (destitution plebiscite) the direct vote counts, and it is not the Electoral College.
Based on these facts, it is possible to make the next findings:
-The American democracy will be tested;
-Moments like these increase the risk of creating an "external enemy" (Orwell);
-It is still too early to make projections of a final result about impeachment or recall. But based on several scenario analyzes - in the presence or absence of a series of requirements - it is possible to affirm that the odds of some kind of mandate loss process being triggered (impeachment or recall) until the end of 2017 is in the order of 60%;
-Many of the factors that influence this scenario are subjective and difficult to measure that makes it difficult to "hit" a number. This can be done more easily in elections and opinion polls;
-Often, a year is not enough time to fulfill all the routines necessary for an impeachment or a recall process, which makes the odds jump to 75% by the end of 2018;
-Whatever the scenario, this increases the degree of volatility and uncertainty for markets and the social environment;
-This impacts on some asset valuation calculations, especially in determining "extrinsic" values of those assets that are under this kind of measurement. This can represent great investment opportunities.
What is the effect of this on the main assets and markets (NYSE, NASDAQ, Oil, Gold, Dollar, Euro and etc.)? We will be researching about it.
Is it time to get ready for “Rothschild strategy”?
"The original phrase attributed to the Baron of Rothschild, who made fortune buying during the panic that followed the Waterloo Battle. The original phrase is believed to be: ‘Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own"
For those who think in the short term, it's still early. For those who think in the long term, it is time to start thinking more depth.