Predictions by Ontology: The Super Bowl Case
Mr. Stratocaster, Post-Doc
Predictions and projections for the Super bowl oscillate substantially. The reason for this are imponderable factors that are appearing over the last few games, mostly bruises, but even another factor, the "motivation."
For more consistent predictions, the ideal is that statistical analyzes should be combined with tools that allow the detection of subjective elements. Those elements indicate, when possible, the measurement of motivational factors and other aspects involved.
For this reason, conducting predictions in the area of sports is a more complex activity than in politics or the financial market.
But the proper scanning of websites and social networks can help with this task. The use of linguistic technologies, and in particular the engineering of ontologies, allows the conception of readings that indicate statistical scenarios that are usually undetectable.
This was the case, for example, in the FIFA World Cup final, in which the mathematical projections indicated the advantage of Real Madrid in the proportion of 10 X1 against Kashima Antlers. But the readings of posts and contents on social media indicated a tremendous motivational expectation about the Japanese team and its players, which turned to reveal an exceptional performance on the field, making the game much more balanced than statistics could diagnose.
Likewise, the result of the Super bowl will be influenced by these variables. Teams that have previously been singled out as favorites are now out of the picture. The case of the Oakland Raiders is paradigmatic. From favorite for the conquest of the AFC, the team fell to the position of underdog, as an outcome of contusions.
This is why we will be monitoring not only the statistics, but also the words that reveal feelings.