World War III?
Mr. Stratocaster, Post-Doc
There are currently so many international mechanisms of balance of forces, so many international bodies and so many treaties and agreements, that it is difficult to think of a conflict that could not be equated or contained before turning into a global war.
But the tension between countries is growing at the moment. The murder of a Russian ambassador in front of the cameras, and the bilateral expulsion of diplomats between the US and Russia are facts that can not go unnoticed. So, is there a concrete chance for a World War? Well, in this moment it is still small, but it's bigger than it was before these facts took place.
Today's DefCon is 5 (blue), on a scale ranging from 5 (less severe) to 1 (more severe).
What we will be following here is the increasing tension between the world powers, and what impact this generates on the global economic system.
The intention is to focus on 2 questions:
1) What factors make this tension increase, and where can they be monitored?
2) What currencies, stocks, and assets go up, and which ones come down with increased tension and a prospect of war? What happens to the price of oil, gold, the dollar and the euro due to the increase in these tensions?