AI and Predictions
In the 2030s, genuine artificial intelligence will be commonplace in society.
If we can indeed create true artificial intelligence, when can we expect such machines to be a “normal” part of society?
As it turns out, technology is rapidly catching up with the requirements of AI. The author’s so-called law of accelerating returns describes the predictable, ever-accelerating growth of information technology. Assuming technological development follows this trajectory, in the very near future it will be advanced enough to simulate the human brain.
Intel has already begun manufacturing 3D computer chips which effectively circumvent the problem of space on a circuit board by stacking components on top of each other, rather than shrinking them further. The company expects such chips to be an industry standard by the end of the decade.
The author estimates that processors required for a digital neocortex would need to be capable of running 1016 calculations per second. Today’s fastest supercomputer in Japan can already perform calculations at this speed.
A digital cortex would also need to be able to store around 20 billion bytes of data, assuming it has about 300 million pattern recognizers with 72 bytes of memory each. Again, this is a level of processing power that even average computers today can exceed.
We will soon see convincing examples of AI in 2029, the author claims, and AI will become commonplace in the 2030s. According to the author, all the portrayals of AI in movies and on television - where robots are often treated as conscious beings - has prepared us to welcome conscious artificial intelligence into our lives.
The author’s track record for these kinds of predictions inspires confidence that this will indeed be the case. In the 1990s, the author made 147 predictions for 2009 – and only three of those proved to be false!
** HOW TO CREATE A MIND: THE SECRET OF HUMAN THOUGHT REVEALED - Rail Kurzweil, 2012